Trading Journal

NEWS Catcher, Feb 3 - GBPUSD & EURUSD February 3, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Diari , add a comment

Yap, tonight there was two big news for USD. And as usual, big news makes technical indicator will useless. So, but just using fundamental news also very-very abstract. Except, if it give visible impact.

Like today, there was US Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast: 150K, actual: 243K) and US Unemployment Rate (forecast:8.5%, actual: 8.3%). It is very clear that USD will strong against any normal pair. Especially for GU and EU, it will make a very big down trend or bearish.

How it’s looks like?

and it is still goes down.

How about the trade? Simply put short or sell approximately 30 minutes after news. Usually the broker will make the price goes up first, then goes down. No problem, just enter sell right after the big news that make the direction of the price is very predictable.

How’s the result?

Don’t try this at home. VERY DANGEROUS!!! HIGH RISK!!!

Naked Trading, Signal, 3 Feb 2011 - EURUSD February 3, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Journal, Signal , add a comment

Let’s take a look at EURUSD H4 today in Europe session:

Last few days, it showed that the price tried to break the last high and it was failed. It retested several times but it was failed. And now it retest again to break the last previous high. Can it goes up further?

We have two scenario. First, if it cannot leave those upper down-trend line, it is possible that those spot become the resistance. But, if it can break the last high, it may lead to go up. So?

Wanna try?

Update

Yups, our prediction was right. Now, how long it will be? Or how deep? Or how much the target?

There are several next scenario. First, it may goes down until the lower down-trend. If we use this scenario, to anticipate the reversal, we can make a profit lock. So the SL is set bellow the open line. Second, we can using fibo point. Third, we can use candle pattern signal for close.

But for now, I prefer to chose using fibo with profit lock. And I set the TP above 61.8, and SL below the the open line:

So, whatever the price goes up or goes down, no problem. For sure, TP or SL, we get profit…

Close MT4 and enjoy the world… B-)

Naked Trading, Signal, 3 Feb 2011 -GBPUSD February 3, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Journal, Signal , add a comment

Wanna try?

Although it is touching the down up-trend line, but it still possible that will down to 61.8 fibo point and become the possible reversal or support. For the target, still keep an eye on H4 and H1 for any possible resistance in this day.

Update

Naked Trading Feb 1, 2012 - US Session February 1, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Journal, Signal , add a comment

Tonight in US session let’s take a look at EURUSD and GBPUSD

EURUSD

EURUSD in H4 seems that it trying to break the two previous high. The price is still in movement to break that high. It is possible that in this spot become the resistance and the price will go back down. But, if it can break the last two high, it is possible to break further.

Scenario today is open short or sell, with target point between the two trendline and stop loss at the last highest high. For the entry, we still have to wait for the best entry from candle pattern in M30 or H1 to confirm the reversal.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD from H4 also showing that the price was in the higher up-trend line. It is not touch the line yet but it is possible that in nearly from that line will become resistance point. Just wait and see in case of good entry signal for short or sell.

Update

Picture represent thousand word:

Result:

Close enough ha?

Market Outlook - February 1, 2012 February 1, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Journal , add a comment

Before we enter Europe session and US session, let’s take a look at the general movement of EURUSD and GBPUSD.

EURUSD

If we take a look at H4 timeframe on EURUSD, it showed that yesterday is breaking the trend. If we observe further, we can capture head-and-shoulder pattern in this timeframe. Indicating that in the next day there will be reversal direction from current trend.

For long term, it preferable to put short or sell with target point as high as the head and the shoulder, or 160 pips. And the stop loss is the top of the head. But, for daytrade, we have to beware for the news. There are US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and US ISM Manufacturing PMI. And it is possible that the price will be bounce back first before fall down.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD on H4 timeframe also showing the strong up trend. The price is in the sideways on the way to the down up-trend line. If it break the trend line, it is possible that the price will break out to fall. But if it bounce back, it will be the support and the price will goes up to the up up-trend.

Warning: Do not use this material as the signal, but use as the general reference movement of the price. If you want to know the entry signal, I’ll post in my journal of Naked Trading, not here.

Signal Jan 24, 2012 January 24, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Signal , add a comment

Wanna try?

EURUSD

BUY EURUSD: 1.3021

Take profit: 1.3100

Stop loss: 1.2979

GBPUSD

SELL GBPUSD: 1.5555

Take profit: 1.5500

Stop loss: 1.5581

USDCHF

SELL USDCHF: 0.9266

Take profit: 0.9200

Stop loss: 0.9322

On the way

Signal Jan 20, 2012 January 20, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Signal , add a comment

Wanna try?

GBPUSD

BUY GBPUSD: 1.5485

Take Profit: 1.5520

Stop Loss: 1.5444

EURUSD

BUY EURUSD: 1.2960

Take Profit: 1.3025

Stop Loss: 1.2906

USDCHF

BUY USDCHF: 0.9325

Take Profit: 0.9275

Stop Loss: 0.9369

Result:

Market Outlook - January 20, 2012 January 20, 2012

Posted by Musa in : Journal , add a comment

EURUSD

Yesterday EU was in break up the upper down trend line in H4. It is successful to make the breakout from the trend line:

In the smaller time frame, we could see that it was in the up trend. But now it is reach the upper up trend line.

For today, beware of the correction in the up trend. It may consolidate back down to the low up trend line in H1. After that, it is possible that the pair is still goes up again continuing the up trend.

GBPUSD

This pair still showed that its price is still going to the upper up trend line:

Also in hourly time line we could see that it is still in the up trend.

The possibilities for today is the price is still goes up to the trend line. But it may consolidate first. If it is in the up trend line, it is may lead the price in the resistance and get ready for the reversal.